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Curfew #day 1: The Art of War

23 mars 2020, 19:03

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Curfew #day 1: The Art of War

Sun Zi said:"War is a matter of vital importance to the State. It is a matter of life and death to its people and the road either to its survival or its ruin." 

When I woke up this morning, my eyes first caught the rays of sunshine gently flattering my cheeks, then my ears got sense of this unusual quietness. It took a few seconds for my brain to recall that yes, we are at war, a war where the enemy strikes silently and you don't even know where the blow will come from.  

This enemy is indeed the Covid-19, with over 12,000 deaths  worldwide ( figures recorded Saturday by Johns Hopkins University in the United States) and already two deaths in Mauritius. Now is the time for our "invincible warriors" to understand the seriousness of the situation and make home-made roti and dholl puri rather than queuing up on the streets. 

Sun Zi believed that there were factors determining or predicting what troops will be victorious at the end of the day. Here comes chapter one; the importance of laying plans. The first factor determinant of the outcome of a war is the moral influence; that is, " that thing which causes the people to be in complete accord with their sovereign so that they will follow him without the slightest disloyalty." Countries like China, Singapore and now India, amongst others, won over this first factor through tough consequential measures in case of breach of confinement orders.

Others like France, the UK and Mauritius, amongst others, failed in winning over this first step. If we already know the results in terms of death toll for European countries, mostly Italy, the worst-hit European country, we might soon get to know the consequence of civil irresponsibility in our small island nation too with around 700 cases forecasted in a period of five days, shall we not respect the curfew? Videos of people grouped without respecting the recommended safety distance to buy some "baja" is shocking. The second factor is the weather. It seems that "communities living in warmer places appear to have a comparative advantage to slow the transmission of coronavirus infections, according to an early analysis by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology", reports the New York Times.  However, warm temperatures will not halt the disease from spreading.  

This being said, it is likely that factor two is advantageous for us. Factor 3; terrain. It here refers to the distances, small or big places. Mauritius being a small island where everybody at some point seems to know everybody, avoiding transmission of the disease if the self-quarantine is not well respected looks hard to achieve. The fourth factor is the commander. Here we refer to the general's ability of wisdom, strictness and courage, amongst others. With this reinforced curfew and complete or so closure of the borders but delay in taking preventive measures before the virus reached our shores and failure in making people abide by the rules, time will tell if Mauritius won over this fourth factor. 

The last factor is the doctrine; that is, the principles guiding the organisation of the forces and having the right people in the right place. Is the minister of Health at his right place managing the situation to the best of his capability? Or will his looks of being engulfed in this situation win over him? Those people who are or were in quarantine in awful sanitary conditions might have an idea. 

All these factors being considered, can we forecast victory or defeat? Maybe it's high time for us to realize the importance of respecting the measures of this curfew and keeping our families safe. 

Aux armes Mauriciens!